Year End Rallies (with Josh and Tony Dwyer)

The S&P 500 came into October this year up double digits. It has done so on 42 occasions since 1926. That’s almost 50% of the time.  Of those 42 times, in 35 cases the market went up through the end of the year. That’s an 85% success rate, about as one-sided as market statistics can get.  On only 7 occasions did it fall in the fourth quarter.  BUT.... The 3 worst Q4 losses ever all occurred with the market up double digits - these worst Q4 drops ever were 1929, 1987 and last year -28%, -23% and -14% So most of the time when stocks are already up they continue to go up. but sometimes they also get crushed. The average gain is 4.5% (even including the losses). this is also the 24th time the S&P has been up 20% or more through 3 quarters of the year. We talked with famed Wall Street strategist Tony Dwyer about the tendency for markets that have a good three quarters to finish strong, and why this year looks like it should fall in line with the historical data.  <a href="http://plinkhq.com/i/1456467014" target="_blank">1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app</a> Subscribe to the mini podcast on<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound/id1456467014?mt=2" target="_blank"> iTunes</a> or<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5VKsKPZUtwVylxslLie36k?si=W5sikLxWR0avObQlrLqlmw" target="_blank"> Spotify</a>  Enable<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ritholtz-Wealth-Management-LLC-Compound/dp/B07P777QBZ" target="_blank"> our Alexa skill here</a> - "Alexa, play the Compound show!" Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here: <a href="http://ritholtzwealth.com/" target="_blank">http://ritholtzwealth.com/</a> Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer:<a href="https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/" target="_blank">https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/</a> <hr /> Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

Show Notes

The S&P 500 came into October this year up double digits. It has done so on 42 occasions since 1926. That’s almost 50% of the time.

Of those 42 times, in 35 cases the market went up through the end of the year. That’s an 85% success rate, about as one-sided as market statistics can get.

On only 7 occasions did it fall in the fourth quarter.

BUT....

The 3 worst Q4 losses ever all occurred with the market up double digits - these worst Q4 drops ever were 1929, 1987 and last year

-28%, -23% and -14%

So most of the time when stocks are already up they continue to go up. but sometimes they also get crushed.

The average gain is 4.5% (even including the losses). this is also the 24th time the S&P has been up 20% or more through 3 quarters of the year.

We talked with famed Wall Street strategist Tony Dwyer about the tendency for markets that have a good three quarters to finish strong, and why this year looks like it should fall in line with the historical data.

1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app

Subscribe to the mini podcast on iTunes or Spotify

Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!"

Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here:

http://ritholtzwealth.com/

Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer:

https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Year End Rallies (with Josh and Tony Dwyer)

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